Long-term changes in the Arabian Peninsula rainfall and their relationship with the ENSO signals in the tropical Indo-Pacific

We investigate long-term changes in winter rainfall patterns across the Arabian Peninsula (AP) through an analysis of Climate Research Unit (CRU) gridded dataset, and measurements collected at 39 stations distributed AP over period 1951–2010. reveal a increase about 25–30% eastern decrease 10–20% southern northeastern AP. A partial correlation suggests that canonical El Niños are associated with significant negative anomalies southwest during 1951–1980 period. However, extent Niño-induced deficit decreased subsequent decades. In fact, above-average occurs recent decades Ethiopia, Yemen central Niños. Furthermore, positive phases Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM), which lags ENSO signal by 3–4 months, linked below-average northern AP, but only until 1970 s. investigated teleconnections between variability various atmospheric parameters from European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) twentieth century (ERA-20C) reanalysis. Notably, sub-tropical westerly jet (STJ) shifted southward intensified This shift STJ favoured frequent passage transients, contributed to increased These events anomalously strengthen upper level westerlies Niño Modokis, adding recently-strengthened thereby further intensifying transient activity. large-scale background change likely weakened impact IOBM events.